New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Coinbase and Gemini over their prediction market offerings, alleging the platforms operated unlicensed event-contract products that the state considers akin to illegal gambling.
What New York Is Alleging Against Coinbase and Gemini
TLDR KEY POINTS
- Plaintiff: New York Attorney General Letitia James
- Named platforms: Coinbase and Gemini
- Alleged conduct: Operating prediction market products classified as unlicensed event contracts comparable to sports betting
The lawsuit, first reported by Bloomberg Law, targets both exchanges for offering prediction market products that the state considers illegal under New York law. The attorney general’s office frames these products as event contracts that function similarly to sports betting.
A press release from the attorney general’s office warned New Yorkers about potential harms from sports betting and event-contract platforms, signaling the enforcement theory behind the case.
What Is Confirmed vs. Developing
The existence of the lawsuit and the identity of the parties are confirmed through both the attorney general’s press release and Bloomberg Law’s reporting. Specific damages sought, the precise legal statutes cited, and whether the state is seeking injunctive relief to halt the products remain developing details.
Why Prediction Market Offerings Face New York Scrutiny
What Prediction Markets Are
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, from election results to sports outcomes. Users profit if their predicted outcome occurs. Coinbase describes its prediction market product as a way to trade on event outcomes directly through the platform.
The growth of crypto-native prediction markets has accelerated in recent months, with platforms like Polymarket raising $400 million at a $15 billion valuation from backers including the NYSE’s parent company.
The Regulatory Tension
New York’s enforcement theory appears to rest on classifying event contracts as a form of gambling rather than as financial instruments or commodities. The attorney general’s press release explicitly groups prediction markets alongside sports betting, suggesting the state views wagering on event outcomes through crypto platforms as functionally identical to placing bets.
This framing puts prediction market operators in a difficult position. At the federal level, the CFTC has allowed certain event contracts to trade on regulated exchanges, but New York state law may impose stricter requirements that crypto platforms have not met.
What Comes Next for Coinbase, Gemini, and Crypto Prediction Markets
The most immediate question is whether New York will seek to halt prediction market offerings to state residents while the case proceeds. A temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction could force both exchanges to restrict access for New York users.
The Defiant reported on the lawsuit, underscoring that the case has drawn attention across crypto media as a potential precedent for how states regulate event-contract products offered by centralized exchanges.
Both Coinbase and Gemini hold New York BitLicenses, but those licenses cover cryptocurrency trading and custody, not necessarily the operation of prediction market products. Whether existing licenses extend to event contracts is likely to become a central legal question.
For the broader industry, the case could influence how other centralized platforms approach prediction market features. Exchanges weighing new product launches, including those exploring novel spot listings and other asset types, will be watching New York’s enforcement action closely.
The outcome could also carry implications for stablecoin issuers and market infrastructure providers operating in New York, as the attorney general’s office may use this case to signal broader regulatory expectations for crypto products beyond simple trading.
Coinbase and Gemini have not yet publicly detailed their legal response. The next procedural steps, including any court filings or motions, will determine the pace and scope of this case through mid-2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
