Kraken has mapped three possible paths for a Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve and argues that the choice between them could decide whether crypto stays trapped in its current trading range or breaks out on a renewed liquidity narrative. The exchange’s research note frames the Warsh Fed scenarios as a direct input to crypto positioning, with Bitcoin currently trading near $74,937 against an Extreme Fear sentiment backdrop.
What Kraken Means by the 3 Warsh-Led Fed Paths
In an April 2026 research note, Kraken set out three scenarios for how a Warsh-led Federal Reserve might reshape risk-asset behavior: The Grind, The Soft Pivot, and Run It Hot. The framework treats Fed leadership as the swing variable for liquidity, not just rates.
The Warsh-specific framing matters because the nominee has publicly endorsed lower borrowing costs. AP reported that the White House formally forwarded Warsh’s nomination to the Senate and that Warsh has echoed Donald Trump’s call for lower rates, arguing AI productivity gains could let policy ease without reigniting inflation.
The transition itself is unresolved. In the official March 18, 2026 FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell said he would serve as Chair pro tem if his successor was not confirmed by May 15 and indicated he had no intention of leaving the Board while the investigation into him was ongoing.
“I would serve as Chair pro tem until he is confirmed.”
— Jerome Powell, March 18, 2026 FOMC press conference transcript
How Each Fed Scenario Could Break Crypto’s Trading Range
Kraken’s Grind case is the status-quo path. It assumes the fed funds rate stays in a 3.25% to 3.75% range through year-end 2026, with policy inertia keeping crypto rangebound unless a crypto-specific catalyst forces a breakout. Bitcoin’s current $74,937 print sits inside the kind of consolidation this scenario implies.
The Soft Pivot case assumes 2 to 3 cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points, taking the target range to 2.75% to 3.25% by year-end. Kraken argues this is enough to revive a liquidity narrative for Bitcoin first and then for the broader crypto market, in a setup similar to the macro backdrop that has accompanied past spikes in Ether open interest tied to risk-on rallies.
The Run It Hot case is the most aggressive. It implies a more forward-looking Fed delivering roughly three cuts to a 2.75% to 3.00% range and a liquidity backdrop that Kraken says could rerate crypto more broadly. The transmission channel is the Fed balance sheet, which the latest H.4.1 release pegs at $6.745 trillion in total factors supplying reserve funds for the week ended April 8, 2026.
None of the three is a directional call on its own. The Grind is neutral to mildly bearish for crypto’s range, the Soft Pivot is constructive, and Run It Hot is the bullish tail where altcoin sectors, including segments like the increasingly competitive Ethereum DEX aggregator market, would be most sensitive to a liquidity rerating.
What Traders Should Watch to Confirm the Thesis
The first signal is confirmation timing. If Warsh is not confirmed by May 15, Powell stays on as Chair pro tem, which mechanically pushes the market toward Kraken’s Grind path until the leadership question resolves.
The second signal is the rate path itself. Movement of the fed funds target out of the current 3.25%-3.75% Grind band toward the 2.75%-3.25% Soft Pivot range, or further to the 2.75%-3.00% Run It Hot band, would be the cleanest validator that Kraken’s easier-policy cases are playing out.
The third signal is sentiment positioning. The Fear & Greed Index currently prints 23, or Extreme Fear, which means crypto is positioned defensively heading into the leadership decision. A break of the current range under the Soft Pivot or Run It Hot scenarios would have to overcome that positioning rather than ride existing momentum.
The fourth signal is regulatory follow-through on adjacent crypto policy, including ongoing legislative work such as the stablecoin bill where Senator Thom Tillis has voiced guarded optimism. Easier Fed liquidity combined with concrete crypto rules is the combination Kraken’s bullish cases implicitly assume.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
