Iran war oil shock is keeping energy markets tense for Southeast Asia, with verified disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushing crude and gas prices higher while Bitcoin stayed firm instead of joining a broader panic trade.
Verified disruption, not a formally confirmed Strait closure
Claims that the Strait of Hormuz is fully paralyzed go beyond what official maritime guidance has confirmed. In a February 28, 2026 advisory, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said no official closure had been formally communicated through recognized maritime safety channels, even though commercial traffic was reduced and the security environment was described as significant.
That distinction matters because markets have reacted to disruption and risk, not to a formally recognized shutdown. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, 2026, up about 50% from the start of the year, and linked the rise to falling petroleum shipments through Hormuz and shut-in Middle East production.
The pressure intensified after fresh strikes. CBS and the Associated Press reported on March 11, 2026 that Brent jumped 9.3% to $100.50 and WTI rose 8.8% to $94.92, underscoring how quickly the conflict premium returned to oil.
Natural gas is part of the same story, especially for Asian readers. The EIA said reduced LNG flows through Hormuz lifted gas prices in Europe and Asia more than in the U.S., which is a more relevant signal for import-dependent economies such as Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Donald Trump’s demands remain part of the political backdrop, but the available evidence does not prove they directly changed transit conditions. JMIC’s advisory also noted that passage through an international strait cannot be suspended through informal VHF warnings alone under the legal framework it cited.
Bitcoin stayed green while oil moved above $100
The crypto reaction did not match a classic flight-from-risk move. During the same market window, Bitcoin traded at $73,641, up 3.10% over 24 hours, with roughly $46.45 billion in volume and a market cap near $1.47 trillion.
That contrast is why the story matters for kanalcoin readers. Oil and gas stress usually feeds macro anxiety across Asian markets, yet Bitcoin held up even as energy traders priced in further disruption around one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.
This does not prove Bitcoin is a perfect hedge against war or energy inflation. It does show that, in this specific episode, crypto price action was firmer than many risk-sensitive assets and much firmer than the headline tone around oil would suggest.
The EIA’s own outlook keeps that macro tension alive. It said Brent is expected to stay above $95 per barrel over the next two months if conflict-related outages and transport disruption persist, which means crypto desks in Asia may have to trade around a longer-lasting energy shock rather than a one-day spike.
Chris Wright, quoted by CBS, said, “This is not a long-term war; it’s a temporary movement.” That view may calm some traders, but for now the harder data point is that oil has remained elevated while Bitcoin has not broken down.
What traders in Southeast Asia should watch next
For ASEAN markets, the next signals are concrete rather than speculative. Traders should watch official JMIC and UKMTO notices first, because viral claims of a total closure remain unverified unless they are confirmed through recognized maritime safety channels.
Brent’s direction is the second signal. If oil stays near or above the EIA’s $95 two-month range, the knock-on effects on LNG costs, power prices, shipping expenses, and consumer demand will be felt more sharply across Asia than in the U.S.
Bitcoin’s correlation behavior is the third signal. If BTC keeps rising or holding steady while energy prices remain elevated, traders in Jakarta, Singapore, Bangkok, Manila, and Ho Chi Minh City may start treating the asset less as a pure risk proxy and more as a market that can decouple during regional macro stress.
That regional angle is easy to miss in U.S.-focused coverage. For Southeast Asian exchanges and trading desks, the issue is not only whether oil breaks $100 again, but whether an Asia-led gas squeeze starts changing local sentiment, stablecoin flows, and crypto positioning across the region.
Related coverage on kanalcoin has already tracked how the Iran conflict put crypto markets on edge, how Goldman Sachs framed possible investment opportunities during the war, and how the earlier oil move above $100 reshaped the market narrative. This latest setup is narrower but clearer: reduced Hormuz flows and conflict risk are verified, a formal strait closure is not, and Bitcoin has so far remained resilient.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
