Bitcoin slipped below $71,000 on Thursday as doubts over the U.S.-Iran cease-fire rattled crypto markets, dragging XRP and Ethereum down harder and pushing the Fear & Greed Index to an Extreme Fear reading of 14.
Why Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum Are Falling Now
KEY POINTS
- Bitcoin fell to $70,981, down 0.5% in 24 hours, after Iran’s parliament speaker said three cease-fire clauses had been contravened.
- XRP dropped -3.37% to $1.33 and Ethereum fell -2.82% to $2,184.50 as risk-off sentiment spread.
- The Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 14 (Extreme Fear), reflecting rapid sentiment deterioration.
The selloff is not an isolated single-coin event. All three major cryptocurrencies are falling in tandem, driven by the same geopolitical catalyst: the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is fraying less than 48 hours after it was signed.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that three clauses of the cease-fire proposal had been contravened. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through, despite Iran’s pledge to allow coordinated transit.
Oil Rebound Amplifies Crypto Pressure
Brent crude rebounded 2% to roughly $97 after Wednesday’s collapse of more than 10%. That oil bounce signals the market no longer believes the cease-fire will hold, and rising energy prices feed directly into the risk-off positioning that weighs on crypto.
Bitcoin had surged to $72,700 on April 8 when the cease-fire was first announced. That euphoria has now fully reversed. BTC traded at $71,057 on Thursday, still up 6.1% on the week but losing momentum as geopolitical uncertainty returns.
Zeus Research analyst Dominick John noted that the current rally is a short-term liquidity impulse that requires persistent liquidity expansion, rate cuts, and structural ETF inflows to translate into a sustained bull run. Without those conditions, the cease-fire bounce looks increasingly fragile.
The Crypto Price Level to Watch for Trend Confirmation
The key level is $65,000, the bottom of the range Bitcoin has held since geopolitical tensions escalated. BTC is currently trading in a $65,000 to $73,000 range and testing the upper half.
A sustained hold above $65,000 would suggest that the broader uptrend remains intact and that Thursday’s selloff is a pullback within a bullish structure. A breakdown below $65,000 would invalidate the range and open the door to deeper losses, similar to what happened when Cango sold $442 million in Bitcoin and briefly pressured spot markets.
Analyst Michaal van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin had broken through the crucial $71,000 level and built a bullish structure, though that assessment came before cease-fire doubts resurfaced.
How XRP and Ethereum Track the BTC Level
XRP’s -3.37% drop to $1.33 and Ethereum’s -2.82% decline to $2,184.50 both exceeded Bitcoin’s -0.89% loss. Altcoins typically fall harder when BTC weakens, and a break of BTC below $65,000 would likely accelerate selling in both assets.
If Bitcoin holds the range floor, history suggests altcoins recover faster on the bounce. But in the current environment, where Congress is still working on crypto market structure legislation, macro conditions are doing more of the heavy lifting than sector-specific catalysts.
What to Watch Next if Cease-Fire Doubts Persist
Bearish scenario: The Strait of Hormuz stays closed, oil pushes back above $100, and the cease-fire formally collapses. In that case, Bitcoin likely retests $65,000, the Fear & Greed Index could fall further into single digits, and leveraged long positions face liquidation pressure across the derivatives market.
Stabilization scenario: Diplomatic channels produce concrete progress on the three contested clauses, tanker traffic resumes, and oil pulls back below $95. Bitcoin reclaims $72,000 and the range holds. The weekly gain of 6.1% becomes the base for a push toward $73,000 resistance.
The monitoring checklist is straightforward: watch cease-fire headline developments, track Brent crude as a real-time proxy for geopolitical risk, and observe whether Bitcoin holds or loses the $65,000 floor. The Fear & Greed reading of 14 confirms that the market is pricing in significant uncertainty, but extreme fear readings have historically preceded bounces when the catalyst resolves.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
