Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, asserts that Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle is outdated due to global liquidity changes, detailed in his latest statement on October 9, 2025.
This perspective suggests potential shifts in Bitcoin market dynamics, emphasizing liquidity impacts over historical patterns, and influencing trader strategies amid anticipated policy changes in the U.S. and China.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, casts doubt on Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle in his recent writings. He argues that expansionary monetary policies, not traditional cycles, currently influence the market. Hayes serves as CIO of Maelstrom.
Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have coincided with monetary easing in major economies. Previous cycles reflect not just protocol events but broader macro-financial trends, reinforcing Hayes’ perspective on the current market dynamics.
Arthur Hayes Challenges Bitcoin’s Standard Cycle Theory
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, casts doubt on Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle in his recent writings. He argues that expansionary monetary policies, not traditional cycles, currently influence the market. Hayes serves as CIO of Maelstrom.
Hayes posits that the ongoing bull market is linked to extensive liquidity injections rather than Bitcoin halving events. He highlights the impact of global monetary policy shifts, particularly in the U.S., on Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Traders and Analysts Debate Hayes’ Assertions
Hayes’ assertions have sparked debate among traders, considering shifts in the macro environment. Some align with his view that macroeconomic factors could eclipse the traditional Bitcoin cycle’s influence on market trends.
Analysts highlight potential outcomes from further liquidity injections and regulatory actions globally. Observers anticipate that continued expansionary policies may buoy Bitcoin, echoing historical trends during past easing periods. The implications for risk assets extend beyond Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, CIO, Maelstrom, “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!”
Monetary Easing Historically Boosts Bitcoin Bull Runs
Historically, Bitcoin bull runs have coincided with monetary easing in major economies. Previous cycles reflect not just protocol events but broader macro-financial trends, reinforcing Hayes’ perspective on the current market dynamics.
Experts, including Kanalcoin analysts, affirm that substantial changes in monetary policy portend shifts in risk asset valuation. Hayes’ thesis aligns with observable patterns from past market cycles, prompting close attention to central bank actions.
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