Polymarket odds for the Supreme Court overturning Trump's federal tariffs surged to 77% in January 2026, following oral arguments challenging the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
The increased odds on Polymarket reflect significant market confidence in overturning tariffs, indicating potential economic and trade policy shifts if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration.
77% Odds of Supreme Court Overturn on Tariffs
The probability of the Supreme Court overturning Trump's federal tariffs has surged on Polymarket, reaching 77%, indicating market confidence in a judicial reversal. This follows the V.O.S. Selections, Inc. challenge against Trump's Executive Orders.
The case features significant participation, with V.O.S. Selections, Inc. and amicus support from manufacturers opposing tariffs. The hearing's outcome appears to be shifting public perception, reflecting in the adjusted Polymarket odds.
$1.8 Million Market Volume Observed on Polymarket
The rising odds suggest a potential impact on trade relations and economic policies. Market observers are paying attention as this could affect international tariff negotiations and future executive orders.
Financial and regulatory institutions are closely monitoring the situation, with Polymarket's market volume at $1.8 million as of January 2026. The outcomes could guide future legal challenges against similar tariffs. Harrell, a legal expert involved in amicus filings against the tariffs, said, "Watched hearings with Polymarket open and assessed pre-hearing odds at ~70% for overturn (higher than market's 40% uphold chance), post-hearing at ~80% overturn ('20% feels about right')."
Possible Precedent-Setting Case under IEEPA
No prior Supreme Court decisions have directly addressed tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, marking this as a potentially precedent-setting case with broad implications.
Expert assessments suggest a high probability of overturning the tariffs, with a reported 60% chance of all tariffs deemed illegal. The current odds reflect increased confidence post oral arguments in late 2025. Insights on Polymarket's refund policy provide context for participants speculating on the trial's results.
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