Japan’s Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, plans to raise interest rates, challenging the yen carry trade and affecting global risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Rate hikes could tighten global liquidity, impacting Bitcoin’s value and influence crypto markets as investors adjust strategies.
BoJ Plans 0.75% Rate Hike Since 1995
Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise its policy rate up to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. This potential rate increase might unwind the yen carry trade, impacting global financial markets including Bitcoin.
The BoJ, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, has signaled gradual easing of its ultra-loose policy. This change is primarily driven by inflation and wage trends in Japan. Experts view this as a risk event for global assets.
Yen Carry Trade Unwind Could Hit Bitcoin
The global financial community is watching as yen carry unwind could force deleveraging, impacting asset liquidity, including Bitcoin. As JPY rises, institutions may sell foreign assets to protect against expensive FX hedges.
Increased Japanese rates may push up global term premia, impacting asset yields and raising hedged funding costs. Historical trends suggest a yen carry unwind can exert selling pressure on high-beta assets like BTC and ETH.
"The yen carry trade is the largest macro leverage play in the world. If Japan’s rates go up and the yen strengthens, the unwind will hit equities, bonds and crypto because they’re all part of the global liquidity complex." — Raoul Pal, CEO, Real Vision
BoJ Policy Shifts and Crypto Market Dynamics
Prior BoJ policy adjustments have triggered global risk-off actions, affecting Bitcoin alongside U.S. tech stocks. These occurrences highlight BTC's correlation with global liquidity conditions and the broader impact of Japanese financial shifts.
Experts like Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal emphasize the BoJ policy's effect on crypto. They warn that a yen carry unwind could significantly impact Bitcoin's market due to shifts in global dollar liquidity and JGB yields.
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